LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Week 2 of the college basketball season didn’t just shuffle the deck, it moved the dealer. At least in my case, it did.
The instructions are to base your ballot on performance, not your estimate of how good teams are. Early in the season, that can mean some pretty wide swings as teams pile up good wins.
This past week is a perfect example.
Purdue walks into Alabama and wins. Houston slips out of Birmingham with a one-point win over Auburn. Arizona adds a win over UCLA to its earlier win over Florida. UConn picks off BYU in a top-10 matchup. And Duke — last week’s No. 1 on my ballot — doesn’t lose, but still wakes up at No. 5.
That’s the deal when you’re trying to reward what teams have done. If you build a better résumé in a given week, you can jump somebody who stayed perfect. That’s exactly what happened with my 3–4–5 this week: Arizona, UConn, Duke, in that order.
And then there’s the new No. 1 on my ballot, which you can read about below.
Here’s my Week 2 AP Top 25 ballot, with a quick explanation for each team and, in some cases, a look at what’s next.
1. Purdue
(Last week: 8)
Purdue owns what I believe is the best win in the country — an 87–80 victory at Alabama — and followed it up by handling Akron 97–79. They took several haymakers from Alabama and fought them all off, passing not just the eye test but the scoreboard test. Hard to argue with them as a deserving No. 1. They’ll get another neutral-floor test Thursday against Memphis.
2. Houston
(Last week: 2)
Houston stays near the top after a workmanlike 78–45 win over Oakland and a 73–72 grinder against Auburn in Birmingham. That one-point semi-road escape is one of the best results anyone has posted so far, and it fits perfectly with who the Cougars are: a rugged, defensive team that’s hard to shake for 40 minutes.
3. Arizona
(Last week: 3)
Arizona didn’t just hold its spot; it strengthened it. The Wildcats handled Northern Arizona 84–49 and then stacked a second ranked win, 69–65, in a road game against UCLA to go with an earlier victory over Florida. Right now, no one in this 3–5 tier has a better collection of wins than Arizona, which is why the Wildcats lead that group on my ballot. They head to UConn on Wednesday in a game that could reshuffle this tier again.
4. UConn
(Last week: 5)
UConn took care of Columbia, then added a big 86–84 win over BYU in a top-10 matchup at home. The Huskies welcome Arizona to campus on Wednesday in one of the biggest games of the early season in college basketball.
5. Duke
(Last week: 1)
Duke didn’t do anything “wrong” this week — it just didn’t get a chance to match the wins that Arizona and UConn posted. The Blue Devils obliterated Army 114–59 and Indiana State 100–62, numbers that match their No. 1 KenPom profile and make it clear they still belong near the top. But when Arizona, UConn, Houston and Purdue are tangling with ranked teams, Duke (with a win over Texas in Week 1) will have to slide behind them, at least for now. We’ll learn a lot more Tuesday when the Blue Devils meet Kansas in the Garden.
6. Florida
(Last week: 4)
The defending national champs picked up two quality in-state wins: 78–76 over Florida State and 82–68 over Miami. No reason to move them far.
7. Gonzaga
(Last week: 7)
Gonzaga made a loud statement by blowing out Creighton, 90–63, then beating Arizona State 77–65. A 27-point win over a ranked team is as impressive as anything on the board. The Zags sit comfortably in my top 10 and top two in KenPom.
8. Louisville
(Last week: 12)
Louisville climbs after a big rivalry win and a convincing follow-up. The Cardinals beat then-No. 9 Kentucky 96–88 and then turned around and drilled Ohio 106–81. That’s the kind of week that vaults you into the top eight. A road trip to Cincinnati on Friday will tell us more.
9. Illinois
(Last week: 10)
Illinois beat a ranked Texas Tech team 81–77, then rolled Colgate 84–65. The computers love the Illini (top 6 in several), and now the résumé is starting to catch up. They’ll get another major test Wednesday in Chicago against Alabama.
10. Alabama
(Last week: 9)
Alabama’s only action was that 87–80 loss to Purdue, a game that will look better and better if Purdue keeps playing like this. They were toe-to-toe with the top team for 39 minutes. No need for much of a drop, and they could rise with a win over Illinois this week.
11. Michigan
(Last week: 11)
Michigan pulled out an 85–84 overtime win over Wake Forest and followed that with a 67–63 victory over TCU. Not always pretty, but two solid high-major wins in a week that keeps the Wolverines right where they were — on the edge of the top 10.
12. Kentucky
(Last week: 6)
Kentucky takes a hit after a 96–88 loss at Louisville in which it trailed by 20. The Wildcats bounced back with a 99–53 win over Eastern Illinois, but this was still a week that needed to be acknowledged with a drop. They get a huge chance at redemption Tuesday against Michigan State in Madison Square Garden.
13. BYU
(Last week: 13)
BYU beat Delaware 85–68 and then lost a heartbreaker at UConn, 86–84. That’s a “good loss” in every sense — two points on the road at my No. 4 team — so the Cougars stay put. They’ll see another test Friday against Wisconsin.
14. North Carolina
(Last week: 14)
North Carolina did exactly what it needed to do: followed up its Week 1 win over Kansas by beating Radford 89–74 and North Carolina Central 97–53.
15. Iowa State
(Last week: 17)
Iowa State made one big statement this week, rolling Mississippi State 96–80. It wasn’t a two-game sample, but it was the kind of high-level performance that justifies a climb toward the middle of the poll.
16. Tennessee
(Last week: 16)
Tennessee routed North Florida 99–66 in its only game of the week. The Vols are playing like a typical Tennessee team — heavy on defense, efficient and physical — and sit right around where the computers have them.
17. St. John’s
(Last week: 15)
St. John’s blew out William & Mary 93–60 and stays in the top 20. The Johnnies haven’t had their proving-ground type game yet, but early on they’re validating a spot in this range, and the analytics back that up.
18. Auburn
(Last week: NR)
Auburn moves onto the ballot this week after beating Wofford 93–62 and taking Houston to the wire in a 73–72 loss. Nearly knocking off my No. 2 team — and doing it while still looking the part analytically — earns the Tigers a place in the top 20. I was probably a bit harsh leaving them out of the Top 25 after the retirement of their coach, but again, performance matters. And that was a big-time performance in a losing effort to Houston.
19. Kansas
(Last week: 20)
Kansas beat Texas A&M–Corpus Christi 77–46 and Princeton 76–57, two comfortable wins that push the Jayhawks up a spot. The next step is adding a signature win; the profile is tracking toward the top 15 according to the computers.
20. Michigan State
(Last week: 21)
Michigan State beat San Jose State 79–60 and stays just ahead of Arkansas on my ballot out of respect for last week’s head-to-head win. The Spartans get their biggest stage of the young season Tuesday night against Kentucky at Madison Square Garden.
21. Texas Tech
(Last week: 18)
Texas Tech drops after an 81–77 loss to Illinois, then a routine 80–63 win over Milwaukee. Losing to a team I now have ninth is hardly a catastrophe, but others behind them did a bit more this week, so the Red Raiders drift into the lower 20s.
22. Arkansas
(Last week: 22)
Arkansas beat Central Arkansas 93–56 and Samford 79–75. The narrow margin against Samford keeps the Razorbacks from moving up, and that earlier loss to Michigan State keeps them behind the Spartans until the résumé tells us otherwise.
23. UCLA
(Last week: 24)
UCLA beat West Georgia 83–62 and lost a close one to Arizona, 69–65. A four-point loss to a top-five team on my ballot isn’t the kind of thing you punish; if anything, it’s a mild validation, so the Bruins stay put.
24. Georgetown
(Last week: 25)
I know. I’m an outlier here. But Georgetown now has a double-digit road win at Maryland and a win over Clemson. Of the teams pushing for this last spot, who has better than that?
25. Vanderbilt
(Last week: 19)
Vanderbilt slides a bit to make room for teams banking bigger wins, but the Commodores remain on the ballot largely on the strength of strong efficiency numbers -- and a road win at UCF. At some point they’ll need a signature result to hold this spot.
Just missed / on the watch list:
Indiana is still very much on the radar after beating Milwaukee and Incarnate Word, but with Auburn needing to come onto the ballot and several teams stacking quality wins — and with the struggles against Incarnate Word — the Hoosiers slide just outside for now. Wisconsin is another that many have ranked, and I will too at some point. But they’ve beaten Campbell, Northern Illinois and Ball State. Now isn’t the time.
This second ballot is still more about placing markers than handing out verdicts. Starting Tuesday, with Duke–Kansas and Michigan State–Kentucky in New York, then rolling into Illinois–Alabama, UConn–Arizona, Louisville–Cincinnati and BYU–Wisconsin, we get more cross-pollination that will make next week’s ballot both tougher — and a lot more fun.
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