LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Joe Montano is 63 years old. On Saturday, Montano will celebrate attending his 64th Kentucky Derby.
How does that math work?
Seamlessly. Montano said he was 4 months old when his mother, Pat, brought him to Barn 8 on the Churchill Downs backside, where his father, Angel, trained horses for nearly six decades.
Montano Barn Derby parties remain legendary. They had the best breakfast, lunch and dinner. The most fun. The largest crowd, often as many as 200 people, with children watching the races from the roof of Angel's barn.
Kentucky Derby 151 | Derby Prep Races | Derby Festival Events
There was also the most action — if you know what I mean. Montano remembers doing his first serious Kentucky Derby handicapping in 1982, when he crushed the Gato del Sol/Laser Light exacta.
Starting with 1982, Montano said he has bet the winner in 19 of the last 43 Derbies. His last winner was Authentic, the winner of the COVID-delayed 2000 Derby.
His biggest score?
"Animal Kingdom (in 2011)," Montano said. "I loved that horse. I bet $492 and won something like $64,000."
Joe Montano will attend his 64th Kentucky Derby Saturday He has bet on the winner 19 times in the last 43 years.
That is math that I can live with it. I'm guessing $64,000 got your attention, too.
"I had the exacta (Animal Kingdom/Nerho) five times (and it paid $329.80). I had $60 across the board on Animal Kingdom (which paid $43.80, $19.60 and $13).
"I had a $10 exacta box, I had the trifecta twice (it paid close to $4,000) and I had the superfecta (first four, which paid $48, 126)."
But Montano said that he remains disappointed that he was not aware of the high five wager that day because he says he would have also nailed that for a payoff of more than $272,000. Nobody picked the first five that day.
But on to Kentucky Derby 151. All week, I've been on a search for somebody eager to confidently pick the Derby winner. Today, that person is Montano, who works in the IT department for Ford Motor Company.
He began his handicapping for the race long ago, watching replays of every prep race. Like any committed handicapper, Montano studies the past performance charts. He also subscribes to the Ragozin Sheets, an analytics site that breaks down multiple factors in the performance of every horse and then assigns a score.
Montano said that he separated the Derby horses into five categories: Speed, Presser (second tier), Stalker, Closer and Deep Closer.
Although computer programming is one of his specialties, Montano prefers to make a large drawing of the Churchill track and mark it with initials of where he believes that every horse will be positioned at every quarter mile. He also projects the front-running fractions.
"I visualize how the race will unfold, where I think each horse will be and how they will be affected by the other horses in the race," he said.
And how does Montano visualize this race?
"I see this as a very fast-paced race, 45 (seconds) and change, maybe on par with Bodemeister," Montano said.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Bodemeister ran the half mile in 45:39, three-quarters in 1:09.80 and the mile in a sizzling 1:35.19 before losing the 2012 Derby to I'll Have Another by a neck.
Montano does not believe the frontrunners in this field can carry their speed the way Bodemeister did.
"The speed is going to be Citizen Bull (post position 1), Neoequos (2), Rodriguez (4), American Promise (5), East Avenue (12) and Owen Almighty (20)," Montano said.
"There's probably more speed than I've seen in the Derby in a long time. I've got those horses on the front end.
"Journalism (the race favorite) will be a presser (second tier). He'll be mid-pack or better.
"At the top of the stretch, I think that Journalism is the one you're going to have to run down. Whichever horse can run him down is going to win the race — or else he is going to win it."
As typically happens in the Derby, the speed horses will noticeably tire after about three-quarters of a mile, with the strongest members of that group carrying their speed to the quarter-pole.
"If I had to bet one of the speed horses to carry on, it would be Rodriguez," Montano said. "In the Derby, the only trainer I pay attention to is Bob Baffert (who has Citizen Bull and Rodriguez).
"When Baffert really drills down for one race, he can get three to five lengths out of a horse that nobody else can get."
Montano said he won't finalize his Derby 151 bets until the official field is locked in. As of Thursday morning, Baeza needed one scratch to move from the also eligible list. He will include Baeza in his exotic wagers if the colt is able to enter.
His top four, in order: Sovereignty, Final Gambit, Journalism and Baeza.
And his bets?
"I'll have 18 (Sovereignty) and Final Gambit (3) on top of everything, no matter what."
So that is his exacta. On Thursday morning, Sovereignty was 11-1 in the early odds with Final Gambit at 18-1. Bill Mott trains Sovereignty, while Brad Cox will saddle Final Gambit.
"When you bet the number that I'm going to bet, $400-$500, you've got to have some value in there," Montano said. "I mean, anybody can take the top three horses on top of the next four horses."
He said his trifecta with be a Sovereignty, Final Gambit and Journalism box.
The superfecta (top four)?
Sovereignty, Final Gambit, Journalism for first and second, adding Tiztastic and Sandman to that trio for third, adding Publisher to that quartet for fourth place.
And the High Five, picking the first five finishers?
Repeat the superfecta bet but add Luxor Cafe and perhaps Burnham Square for fifth.
In terms of numbers, it is this:
- Exacta: 18 and 3 box
- Trifecta: 18, 3 and 8 box
- Superfecta: 18, 3 and 8, on top of 18, 3 and 8, on top of 18, 3, 8, 14 and 17, on top top 18, 3, 8, 14, 17 and 13
- High Five: Same as the superfecta, adding 7 and 9 for fifth place
I hope Montano cashes — and that you do, too.
Kentucky Derby Coverage:
Kentucky Derby betting 101 | Learning the track lingo for exacta, trifecta and exotics
Picking Kentucky Derby 151 winner, Part II — with Casey Klein
BOZICH | Picking the Derby winner with Travis Stone, Dale Romans, Mark Casse, Jack Wolf
BOZICH | Picking Kentucky Derby 151 winner — Part I
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