Crack the Code: WDRB's Steve Andress uses Kentucky Derby trends to narrow the field for his picks

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Every year, making Kentucky Derby picks proves to be the toughest handicap in horse racing betting. The 19-horse field is the biggest any of these 3-year-olds may ever run in, and the 1 ¼ miles is the farthest any has had to travel. However, some strong historical benchmarks have surprisingly applied to the vast majority of Derby winners.

So let's use a process of elimination with these trends to find the true win contenders and maybe the best rivals to a very deserving favorite, Journalism.

Kentucky Derby 151 | Derby Prep Races | Derby Festival Events

2025 Kentucky Derby Picks Using Historical Trends

At first glance, this field is far stronger on paper than in 2024. I imagine that will become clear as each step in this process unfolds.

Step 1: Eliminate horses that have not run a 95+ Beyer Speed Figure

Of the last 33 Kentucky Derby winners, 29 of them had posted at least a 95 Beyer Speed Figure leading up to the race (87.9%). In fact, 12 of the previous 15 (80%) posted a 100+ BSF, which is somewhat surprising considering we've had six consecutive years of the Derby post-time favorite losing. Perhaps that teaches us to look for strong but overlooked horses in the PPs.

Eliminated: No. 2 Neoequos, No. 3 Final Gambit, No. 11 Flying Mohawk, No. 15 Render Judgement, No. 16 Coal Battle, No. 19 Chunk of Gold, No. 20 Owen Almighty

Step 2: Eliminate horses that did not finish first or second in their last race

The logic here is the Derby is the longest race any of these horses has ever run, and if they did not do well last time out in what was previously their longest race, it's hard to envision more distance helping them, in most cases.

Since 1996, 86% of Derby winners finished in the top two in the final Derby prep race. This is where Derby winners finished in that final prep:

1st: 17
2nd: 7
3rd: 1 (Mystik Dan in 2024, who had a 100+ Beyer before that)
4th: 3

Eliminated: No. 1 Citizen Bull

Step 3: Brisnet Speed Figures

Since 2000, 20 of the past 25 Kentucky Derby winners (80%) had a Brisnet Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race. This number would have been 21 of 25 (84%) if Maximum Security had not been disqualified in 2019.

Eliminated: No. 12 East Avenue, No. 13 Publisher, No. 18 Sovereignty

Step 4: Final Fractions Theory

Hat tip to Louisville's own Jennie Rees for originating this theory that has only gained more data points in support of it over the years. In fact, 30 of the previous 34 Kentucky Derby winners have met the criteria for this theory, including 13 of the last 14 champions.

The theory states that a horse must have run either of these in his final Derby prep race:

Less than 13 seconds for the final furlong
Less than 38 seconds for the final three furlongs

Eliminated: No. 9 Burnham Square

Step 5: International Horses

This is where it gets tricky. We do not have any of the above data for the two Japanese horses in this year's race, Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe. That data is for American racetracks. However, we do have Japanese speed figures called Netkeiba.

Credit to Alex Henry for researching this to help find some context for how these two horses compare to past Japanese entrants, in particular Forever Young, who was in the photo trifecta at Derby 150.

She found Forever Young earned a 103 Netkeiba in his win at the Japanese 2-year-old championship; whereas Luxor Cafe earned a 107 on a faster, more forgiving track earlier this year as a 3-year-old and a 103 last out on a rainy day but on a track rated good, in the Fukuryu Stakes. So Forever Young had a Netkeiba as a 2-year-old that Luxor Cafe just posted in the race before the Derby.

As for Admire Daytona, his highest Netkeiba figure of 102 came in a fourth-place finish behind Luxor Cafe in February.

This points toward Luxor Cafe being a cut above Admire Daytona but a cut below Forever Young. This doesn't mean Luxor Cafe can't hit the board, though, with a fast pace. His 12.0-second final furlong in the Fukuryu is the fastest in this field (even if it did come after a slow 1:03 100-meter split, about the same distance as five furlongs).

In the end, the available data points to these horses being at least a tier below our remaining American contenders.

Eliminated: No. 6 Luxor Cafe, No. 7 Admire Daytona

Step 6: Beware of Deep Closers

This is not to say deep closers cannot win the Derby. In 2022, 80-1 Rich Strike ran from well behind a hot early pace. It's also possible a trainer changes a horse's running style for the Derby, but typically, you do not want a horse that will be near the back of the pack in the first half of the race.

Navigating traffic in the Kentucky Derby is far more challenging with so many other horses than it is for a jockey in a prep race with smaller fields.

This year, it's also extremely notable that deep closers will likely be positioned behind the favorite Journalism, who is likely a mid-pack horse and likely to also avoid a possible hot early pace. So Journalism, theoretically, would get the jump on deep closers.

Eliminated: No. 14 Tiztastic, No. 17 Sandman

2025 Kentucky Derby Picks

After this process, we are left with four horses that appear to be true contenders and all with different odds. If you want to try to beat Journalism — who met every criteria, is the only horse in the field with two 100 Beyer Speed Figures and also double qualified under both Final Fractions Theory criteria — these are the three horses at the end of this process of elimination.

(Fun fact: Rodriguez and Grande survived every step before being scratched. Don't forget about them down the road.)

Note: Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m., May 2, 2025.

No. 5 American Promise (12-1)

Can you imagine if the legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas pulls this off at the age of 89? It at least appears the morning line odds do not match the horse's past performances. However, American Promise is another horse that could be part of a hot pace, but some pace projections have him positioned as more of a stalker.

His sire, Justify, won the Derby by getting in position with a 22-second first quarter mile, then slowing down on the backstretch before holding on for his Kentucky Derby win. That could be exactly what Lukas has in mind, after American Promise worked from the gate and posted very fast early fractions in that breeze.

American Promise is the undisputed largest colt in this field and met the Final Fractions Theory by winning the Virginia Derby with a time of 37.53 seconds for his final three furlongs. His final furlong did not meet the criteria. That race was also six weeks ago, giving him the longest gap between races going into Derby 151.

No. 8 Journalism (3-1)

For all of the reasons said above.

No. 21 Baeza (21-1)

This is not Rich Strike drawing into the race as a crazy longshot. This is like Mystik Dan or Mage drawing into the race, a horse that didn't win last time out but is a true threat. With Rodriguez scratched, Baeza is the only other horse in the field to have a 100+ Beyer on his resume, earned when second by ¾ of a length to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. Baeza is a single qualifier for Final Fractions Theory with a 12.63 final furlong.

In fact, by another metric, Baeza ran the more impressive race. Thorograph assigned Journalism a 1.5 and Baeza a 0.0. Baeza and Journalism are the only horses in the field with a Thorograph of less than 1.0 on their PPs. Journalism's -0.5 two races back is the best in Derby 151.

But no horse has come closer to beating Journalism than Baeza.

Honorable Mention: No. 18 Sovereignty (9-1)

Sovereignty did not get credit in the Florida Derby from Brisnet but managed to finish second from a far outside post when those post positions are typically death for a horse at Gulfstream Park. I cannot completely toss this horse.

He passed every step in this process except the 100+ Brisnet (assigned a 98 for that race). It's hard for me to not use him, especially if his odds drift (like they did in early-week betting to 11-1).

How I'm Betting $100 on Kentucky Derby 151

It's the Kentucky Derby. I'll take my chances at beating Journalism and getting a decent payday. As always, bet responsibly and never bet what you cannot afford to lose.

$12 on 18 to win
$12 on 21 to win
$2 Exacta Box: 5,8,18,19,21; $40 ticket
$1 Trifecta: 8,18, 21/8,18, 21/7,8,14,18,19,21; $24 ticket
$1 Superfecta: 18,21/18,21/8,14/8,14; $4 ticket
$1 Superfecta: 8,18/8,18/5,21/5,21; $4 ticket
$1 Superfecta: 8,21/8,21/7,18/7,18; $4 ticket