LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – The Kentucky Derby picture didn't just change over the weekend. It clarified.
One colt announced himself. Another confirmed himself. And one major contender dropped off the Derby trail.
Todd Pletcher's Renegade charged from last and ran away from the Arkansas Derby field in a performance that stamped him as a possible Derby favorite.
A little earlier, Brad Cox's Commandment did something subtler but just as important at Gulfstream Park, overcoming a slow pace, a wide trip and a talented field to win the Florida Derby by a nose.
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And early Saturday morning, the Derby lost one of its headliners. Paladin, the latest future wager favorite, was declared off the trail with an ankle fracture.
Renegade storms to Arkansas win
Renegade left Oaklawn Park looking every bit like a colt who could be favored on the first Saturday in May.
The Into Mischief colt, trained by Pletcher for Mike Repole and Robert and Lawana Low, came from last under Irad Ortiz Jr. to win the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by four lengths over Silent Tactic. Renegade is now 2-for-2 as a 3-year old and has career earnings of $1.03 million in five starts.
"I just love the progression that he's making," Pletcher said after the race. "Very, very happy for the Lows and the Repoles. Great win for them. Just fortunate to have a colt of this quality."
Renegade is scheduled to return to Pletcher's base at Palm Beach Downs on Tuesday to continue training for the Derby.
For Repole, the prospect of another Derby favorite will come with some understandable nerves. He has already endured the misfortune of seeing three previous Derby favorites (Uncle Mo, Forte, Grande) scratched shortly before the race because of health concerns. This one, for now, is rolling in the right direction.
Silent Tactic's runner-up finish was good enough to leave him safely in the Derby field as well for trainer Mark Casse. He'll remain at Oaklawn in the coming weeks before shipping to Churchill.
Commandment confirms his status as contender
If Renegade looked like the colt of the moment at Oaklawn, Commandment looked like a colt of substance at Gulfstream.
Brad Cox's son of Into Mischief came from last in a race with modest early pace, swung wide into the stretch under Flavien Prat and nailed The Puma at the wire to win the Florida Derby by a nose. Bill Mott's Chief Wallabee, also right there in the photo, ran third.
"My mindset was already, this is a good race and it's going to set him up for the Derby, win or lose," Cox said. "I'm glad we came out on the right end."
The Florida Derby was Commandment's third straight significant performance of the winter, following wins in the Mucho Macho Man and Fountain of Youth. More important, he showed he could overcome a race shape that was not ideal for his style, which is the kind of thing that tends to matter in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field.
Injury sidelines Paladin
Paladin, the Kentucky Derby (G1) future wager favorite earlier this month, is off the Triple Crown trail after a condylar fracture was detected in his right front ankle following a March 28 workout at Payson Park.
Trainer Chad Brown told The Daily Racing Form the injury was discovered after the colt breezed a half-mile in :48 4/5 Saturday morning. Paladin had been pointing toward the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
"It's a heartbreaker," Brown told the Form.
A perfect 3-for-3 in his career, Paladin had emerged as one of the leading Derby contenders with wins in the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds.
A condylar fracture involves a crack in the lower portion of the cannon bone and typically requires surgical repair with screws.
International picture gets clearer
Churchill provided a weekend update on the overseas front.
According to the latest Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, the connections of Japan-bred UAE Derby winner Wonder Dean and runner-up Six Speed have indicated they intend to compete in the Kentucky Derby. On the Japan Road, Churchill says Don Erectus is "not coming," while Danon Bourbon is likely to come if he exits his race in good order.
Final major preps set for the weekend
Entries will be drawn Tuesday for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, with Pletcher's RebeleStakes winner Class President now expected to lead the field. Bob Baffert will send yet another Into Mischief colt, Potente, into the Santa Anita Derby, where he'll face Jeff Mullins' Intrepido and Doug O'Neill's Robusta. Chad Brown's Iron Honor, a son of Derby winner Nyquist, will look to stay on the winning track in the Wood Memorial, coming off a victory in the Gotham Stakes.
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