LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The University of Louisville basketball team will decide where the University of Louisville basketball team will finish in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.
The Cardinals do not need assistance from Virginia or North Carolina State. They don’t need to worry about a coin flip or a complicated tiebreaker system.
Beat Florida State, Virginia Tech and Virginia, and the Cards will earn the top seed for the ACC Tournament and at least half of the ACC regular-season title.
Mike Krzyzewski, Vernon Carey and the rest of the Duke brotherhood cannot do anything about that, because U of L would improve to 17-3 in the league by winning out. Duke would then be the only team capable of also getting to 17, and Louisville handled the Blue Devils by six when the teams played in January.
Winner.
But that all changes if Chris Mack’s team does not win Monday night at 7 p.m. in Tallahassee, Florida.
Florida State handled Louisville easier than Louisville handled Duke. The Seminoles won by 13. They also led by 15 and held the lead for nearly three-quarters of that game.
In the rematch, Louisville will try to do what 21 consecutive visiting teams have failed to do: win in the Tucker Center, a compact facility that will have space for 12,100 raucous fans Monday night.
What must Louisville do to become the first visitor to win in Tallahassee since Zion Williamson and Duke scored on Jan. 12, 2019?
Here is my three-item starter set:
1. Defend the Three
Florida State punished the Cards from distance in the KFC Yum! Center. They made 11 of 23 attempts in a 78-65 win. Six of Leonard Hamilton’s player contributed at least one three.
Florida State shot the ball well last night. Guess what? They’ve shot it even better. FSU has made 10 or more threes nine times. They’ve shot 40% or better from distance in five of their last nine games. They’re dangerous from distance.
That stretch included a 12 for 18 performance against Notre Dame as well as a 13 of 26 against Miami and 11 of 25 against Syracuse.
Florida State has made 37% of its threes in the Seminoles’ 23 victories and only 29.9% in their four defeats.
2. Work the Glass
The Seminoles are a good, not great, rebounding team. They rank sixth in the ACC in rebounding margin at +2.15 per game, well below Louisville, whose +6.63 per game ranks second.
All four teams (Pittsburgh, Indiana, Virginia and Duke) that defeated Florida State outworked the Seminoles on the glass. FSU’s rebounding margin in its four losses was -4.5.
FSU also ranks second in the ACC in blocked shots at 5.62 per game, but their average in the four defeats is only 4.
3. Bench Play
By altering his starting lineup, Mack also altered Louisville’s rotations. With David Johnson and Malik Williams in the lineup, Steven Enoch and the two guards that Mack does not pair with Johnson (likely Ryan McMahon and Darius Perry) must contribute off the bench.
According to the Florida State media relations department, the Seminoles’ bench has been terrific, especially in the last five games.
Hamilton’s reserves have averaged nearly 34 points in that stretch. Only one Seminole (Trent Forrest) plays 30 minutes per game but Hamilton gives at least 10 minutes to 10 guys.
Do fresh legs matter?
They seem to matter. Florida State ranks first in the ACC in steals at 9.08 (about four more per game than Louisville). FSU is also second in turnover margin (+3.5) while Louisville is 12th (-0.59)
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